We are in the process of completing analysis of the baseline data gathered for the gender and livestock project on income generation and the introduction of cash crops (dairy). The need to identify changing strategies under stress for different groups according to economic conditions and access to resources resulted in the application of a questionnaire that also gathered information on consumption and food storage capacity. The data has been entered. This will be analyzed by the co-investigators (resident scientists during the months of December and January) and the principal investigator to understand the role of livestock under climatic stress.
Two different activities related to strategies under stress were developed. The first was to elicit in a consistent manner farmers perceptions of previous years related to climatic events and crop out comes, and second to analyze the information of the household production income and consumption survey applied in 1995. Preliminary analysis has resulted in three publications, one already accepted, one submitted and a third that needs further analysis.
The first was to understand the role of small ruminants as a risk reduction strategy as well as a liquid asset that could reduce the need to diversify. "Diversification as a Risk Management Strategy in an Andean Agropastoral Community" developed an index of diversification for the economic portfolio of peasant households and studied the correlation between diversification and sheep assets, and the life cycle. Diversification was prevalent regardless of economic and liquid assets, though it was negatively correlated with the life cycle indicating that households with less labor access and at the last stage in the life cycle base their daily sustenance on family linkages and some food crops.
A second paper looks at diversification as a mechanism to fully utilize resources in highly variable economic and climatic environments, looking at the strategies pursued by farmers under stress situations. It also proposes a new perspective to the design of research and development programs in fragile environments ("Peasant Household Strategies Technologies and Diversification in Andean Fragile Lands"). Analysis of data from the 1994-1995 survey was included in this paper.
The third paper, "The Assessment and Forecast of Production from the Producers Point of View" (Evaluacion y Pronostico de la Produccion. El Punto de Vista del Productor Campesino) was carried out in San José Llanga with J. Céspedes and Lily Rogríguez. Our purpose was to seek farmers perceptions and assessment of cropping conditions in the last sixteen years. For the period before the most severe drought in the past three decades (1979-1982), during the drought (1982-1984) and after the drought (from 1984-1989) were used as memory land marks. The years 1990 through 1995 were easier to remember by the producers. The crops used to measure impact were two very important food crops, sensitive to droughts and frosts: potato and quina. Producers were asked about past performance, and forecast future events. The assessment codes used were Very bad (nothing to harvest), bad (when only enough for seed is harvested, quality and quantity are very poor, usually related to frost and hail events), regular (when production only satisfies home consumption), good (when after consumption at least ten percent is available for sales), and very good (when at least two thirds of the harvest can be sold, and good quality crops remain for food consumption).
Results for example indicate that potato crops, during the year of the most severe drought, 12 of 20 farmers had a very bad year, 6 had a bad year and one a regular year. After the drought most had a regular period. 1992-1993 year of the gender and livestock first survey was classified by the households as a regular year, three a bad year and four a good year. The next was a good year for most farmers and 18 of the 20 farmers forecasted 1995 to be a regular year. In the case of quina, with the exception of 1991 most years were regular and bad, and 1995 was especially bad. Correlation between the frequencies in terms of potato and quina production in 1993 and 1995, and farmers perceptions coincided.
[Back to Annual Report 96 Contents]
[Continue to Bolivia Activity 4]
970331